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Brazilian Bolsa Família Program – Studies of the 2005 beneficiaries, with Cecilia Machado and Valdemar Neto, and Oppen Social support on data analysis

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The study of exit and permanence in the Unified Registry (CadÚnico), launched in March 2022, allowed us to quantify the persistence of individuals of the first generation of the Bolsa Família Program (PBF) as beneficiaries of the income transfer program.

In a new stage of studies on the main income transfer program in the years 2000 and 2010 of the country, we will seek to investigate the relationship of the outflow movements of beneficiaries with the local characteristics of the municipality, as well as to analyze this exit to formal employment, through data from the Annual Social Information List (RAIS).

That is, we want to: (i) understand which factors are associated with higher exit rates, in order to guide possible municipal strategies, through public policies, in search of a reduction in the economic dependence of individuals; (ii) understand whether those who go out of social policy mapping do so by accessing formal employment and increasing the chances of more stable income.

For this purpose, we will create a new model that maps whether or not one is in RAIS, forecasting models that indicate the dynamics of exiting CadÚnico and accessing formal employment. We will also seek to understand the role of migration in the movements of remaining in and exiting CadÚnico and having access to formal jobs. Furthermore, we will study the intergenerational mobility of education from CadÚnico through the data of fathers and children in adulthood.