Determinants of the Exit from the Cadastro Único: Longitudinal Evidence from Bolsa Família beneficiaries in 2012

Author: Institute for Mobility and Social Development (IMDS)

Edition: 1st

Published in: October 2025

This publication is the result of the technical work developed by the Institute for Mobility and Social Development (IMDS), within the scope of the Technical Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed with the Ministry of Development and Social Assistance, Family and Fight against Hunger (MDS), with the purpose of deepening the understanding of the trajectories of families and individuals accompanied by the Brazilian social protection network.

The report “Determinants of the Exit from the Cadastro Único: Longitudinal Evidence from Bolsa Família beneficiaries in 2012″ investigates the fate of a generation of young people who, in 2012, were registered as dependents of the Bolsa Família Program. The research study follows this cohort over twelve years, analyzing their permanence or departure from the Cadastro Único and identifying factors associated with socioeconomic mobility and the persistence of vulnerability.

The study combines descriptive evidence and statistical models to relate conditions observed in 2012 (such as schooling, household conditions, and household income) to the results observed in 2024. It also considers the time of exposure to the program and regional differences, allowing us to understand the mechanisms that influence the permanence or disconnection of families in relation to the social protection network.

The publication is structured in five chapters that cover everything from the institutional context of Bolsa Família and the Cadastro Único to the analysis of the determinants of the exit from the registry. The results offer subsidies for the improvement of public policies aimed at reducing poverty and strengthening opportunities for social mobility in Brazil.

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