IMDS has article published in the “World Development Perspectives” journal

Volume 35 of the “World Development Perspectives” journal, a multidisciplinary journal of international development, brings in its September issue, already available, the article “Social mobility and CCT programs: The Bolsa Família program in Brazil”, signed by IMDS authors and partner researchers. The text reports on investigations into the long-term results of the first generations of beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família Program – children between 7 and 16 years of age who were dependent on the program in 2005 and who were followed for more than a decade, until 2019.

Paulo Tafner, the institute’s CEO, and Sergio Guimarães, director of research, co-authored the paper with Valdemar Pinho Neto, Giovanna Ribeiro, Vinicius Schuabb, Samuel Franco and Eloah Fassarella.

The publication is consistent with the institute’s vision of being the main platform for studies on social mobility in Brazil and a relevant and reliable source of knowledge for public managers in mobility and social development.

Read below 5 questions answered by the group, which summarize the strategic relevance of this work.

1. You investigated the long-term outcomes related to social mobility and its determinants for low-income Brazilian families benefiting from the Bolsa Família Program (BFP). What were the main conclusions?

Our research documented that, more than a decade after participating in the Bolsa Família Program, 64% of children and young people, then in adulthood, were no longer listed as beneficiaries of federal government social programs and 45% accessed the formal labor market at least once. We were able to observe, however, significant differences between men and women, whites and non-whites, depending on age and region of residence. In fact, we observed that local factors, such as good health and education infrastructures in the municipality, in addition to local economic dynamism, are directly related to the mobility capacity of individuals.

2. The focus was placed on children aged between 7 and 16 years in 2005, and who were followed for more than a decade, until 2019. What most caught the attention of the researchers in this group?

This group corresponds to the first generation of children and young people benefiting from large-scale social programs in Brazil, for which we can observe indicators in adult life, such as access to the labor market. There is a traditional literature that suggests that social programs, along the lines of Bolsa Família, can generate social changes in the long term, as we have observed. This literature, national and international, points to improvements in health, education and income of the beneficiaries throughout their lives.

3. You mainly analyzed two indicators of social mobility: the future emancipation of the federal government’s social programs and access to the formal labor market. What picture stands out from the immersion into these data?

The main finding, which surprised us due to its expressive magnitude, was to observe that more than half of this group of young people and children no longer depended on social programs when they were adults and that this was related to an integration into the formal labor market. This fact reveals a new reality for this generation of Brazilians, born in poverty and extreme poverty, but who managed to overcome them in adult li

4. You mention that you have found significant territorial heterogeneity associated with differences in better health and education infrastructures and local economic activity. What drew the most attention in these aspects?

The great differential of studies like ours is being able to measure, even if with reservations, the disparities between Brazilian regions and municipalities. We observed that a person living in municipalities in the North and Northeast regions has half the probability of social mobility when compared to residents of the South and Southeast regions. We can still relate this greater mobility to better health and education structures, and greater local economic dynamism, in the Center-South of the country.

5. What did you consider as the main challenge in the preparation of this material? What were the biggest difficulties in obtaining, collecting and processing the data?

This study required the effort of associating various administrative data from the federal government, for millions of people and families, over many years. We had the collaboration, between analyses and debates, of a team interested in the subject and in how to observe indicators related to social mobility more accurately, composed of researchers internal to the institute, scholars, and government officials. Several preliminary presentations of the results were carried out internally and in specialized groups, such as the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) and the Ministry of Social Development (MDS).