2026 - Edition 97 | May 19

New IMDS article reveals that variations in social mobility and productive inclusion of low-income young people are related to differences between municipalities in the provision of public services

Hello Leitor,

IMDS has just published the article "Social Mobility and Productive Inclusion of Low-Income Families", authored by Pedro Maia, Leandro da Rocha and Fernando Veloso. The work articulates two complementary approaches to estimate, for each municipality, the probability of young people born in poverty to rise socially and get a formal job.

The first approach, represented by the Atlas of Social Mobility, estimates the probability that an individual born between 1983 and 1990 in a family located in the poorest 50% of the income distribution will reach different ranges of income distribution between 25 and 29 years of age. It is a measure of relative intergenerational mobility, which allows the comparison of mobility patterns between territories.

The second approach, developed in the study "Bolsa Família: First Generations", follows insertion of young people in the labor market who lived in families benefiting from the Bolsa Família Program in 2005. The central variable is the formalization rate, understood as the proportion of young people who had formal employment relationship for at least three years between 2015 and 2019.

These two lenses, looked at together, allow an exploratory analysis of the ways to overcome poverty. In particular, this integrated approach seeks to indicate which characteristics of individuals and territories are associated with trajectories of social ascension. By doing so, it contributes to the design of more efficient public policies, guided by evidence that take into account territorial inequalities.

The results suggest a positive relationship between mobility and productive inclusion. Municipalities with higher rates of formalization of young people from the Bolsa Família tend to present, on average, higher levels of intergenerational mobility. This association indicates that municipalities that offer better conditions for insertion in the formal labor market also tend to favor overcoming disadvantages of origin.

The Center-South region of the country is the one that best combines social mobility with productive inclusion, with particular emphasis on the state of Santa Catarina. The Northeast region reaches intermediate values, while the North region reaches the lowest combination of social mobility and productive inclusion in the national territory.

To understand which characteristics are associated with high rates of social mobility and productive inclusion, the article uses data provided by the project "Municipal Elections 2024: Municipal Indicators", prepared by IMDS, which compiles municipal indicators from 2016 to 2019 on the following topics: education; labor and income; housing and sanitation; health; safety; poverty.

This analysis suggests that municipalities that simultaneously achieve social mobility and productive inclusion are, above all, those with high coverage and educational quality. Other relevant variables are good employment and remuneration conditions in the local labor market and adequate housing and sanitation infrastructure. Although only illustrative, these correlations suggest that variations in social mobility and productive inclusion in the territory may be related to differences between municipalities in the provision of public services, such as education, employment, and housing.

At the individual level, schooling is also of great importance. Among young people who graduated from Bolsa Família and who accessed the formal market between 2015 and 2019, those with complete higher education remain, on average, 0.7 years longer in formal employment compared to those who did not complete elementary school — an increase of 23.7% in the length of stay. Earnings grow with each additional educational level, reinforcing the fact that investing in education can be a powerful lever for lasting productive inclusion.

Based on this evidence, the article presents three public policy recommendations. The first is the customization of productive inclusion policies according to the profile of each worker: the most educated benefit from intermediation services with companies; The less educated first need professional qualification. The second recommendation is the use of artificial intelligence to create more efficient intermediation systems between vacancies and candidates, and to make the connection with qualification programs. The third is the development of territorialized mechanisms for mapping vacancies. Studies show that courses designed based on the demand of local companies generate a much greater impact on employability.

The article is part of Volume 3 of the study Paths of Development: Stabilize, Grow, Include coordinated by the Center for Public Policy Debate (CDPP), and reinforces IMDS's agenda of producing applied knowledge on social mobility in Brazil.

See you in the next "IMDS Letter"!

Paulo Tafner

CEO