2025 - Edition 90 | February 10

At the meeting, the referrals of Goal 3 of the work plan were agreed upon

Hello Leitor,

Within the scope of the Technical Cooperation Agreement signed between the Institute for Mobility and Social Development (IMDS) and the Secretariat for Economic Development of the State of São Paulo (SDE-SP), IMDS carried out, on February 4, its third technical visit to the Secretariat. The meeting aimed to present the consolidation of the main results achieved in Goals 1 and 2 of the work plan, as well as to discuss the referrals and steps provided for in the scope of Goal 3.

The execution of Goal 1, aimed at analyzing the design and structuring of the Productive Inclusion and Employability Policy, was developed in three complementary stages and included two face-to-face workshops with SDE-SP teams. The first stage consisted of a survey of potential problems that could be faced by the policy, at a time when its design was still under construction, based on evidence from the literature and the analysis of the context in which the Secretariat operates. This survey was discussed, validated and prioritized in a first workshop, allowing the identification of the main problems faced by the policy.

The second stage involved the construction of the causal chain of the Theory of Change, combining the prioritized problems with interviews conducted with key actors of the Secretariat, aimed at deepening the understanding of the objectives of the policy and its implementation strategies. The causal chain built was then validated in a second face-to-face workshop with SDE-SP teams, ensuring conceptual alignment and adherence to the logic of the policy. Finally, the third stage consisted of analyzing the risks associated with the implementation of the policy, including the identification of the main risks, assessment of their probability of occurrence and their potential impact, as well as a study of mitigation actions.

Goal 2 was dedicated to the design of the policy monitoring system. The work was also structured in three stages, developed with intense asynchronous participation of the SDE-SP teams. In the first stage, the prioritization of the activities of the Theory of Change that should constitute the focus of the monitoring system was carried out. Subsequently, these activities subsidized the elaboration of evaluative questions, aimed at systematically answering how and with what quality the policy has been implemented. Finally, in the third stage, the construction of indicators capable of responding to the defined evaluative questions was carried out, structuring the monitoring system based on the evaluative logic of the policy.

Currently in execution, Goal 3 corresponds to the ex-ante evaluation phase of the policy and is once again organized in three stages. The first stage aims to measure the magnitude of the potential impact of the policy. To this end, a systematic review of the literature is being carried out, which includes the definition of research questions, the performance of structured searches, the selection of studies based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, the extraction and tabulation of data from the included articles, the evaluation of the heterogeneity of the estimated effects, as well as the interpretation of results and the formulation of conclusions. At the moment, the work is focused precisely on defining the research questions that will guide this review. Also, within the scope of the first stage, the potential impact of the policy will be estimated through simulations, using secondary data and explicit hypotheses.

Once this stage is completed, Goal 3 will move on to identifying the usability and usefulness of the evaluation, with a view to defining the most appropriate scope for the evaluation of the policy, considering its practical applicability and its decision-making support potential. Finally, the third stage will consist of preparing the impact assessment plan, which will involve an analysis of the plausibility of the expected impact, as well as the definition of the identification strategy and the parameters to be adopted in an eventual impact assessment.

Although the execution of Goal 3 still represents a road to be traveled, we understand that the work developed jointly so far is strategic precisely because it strengthens the policy's capacity to learn from its own implementation and to qualify decision-making over time, contributing to its continuous improvement.

The partnership between IMDS and SDE-SP reinforces our commitment to assist the administrations of subnational entities in the establishment of public policies aimed at increasing mobility and social development.

See you in the next "IMDS Letter"!

Paulo Tafner

CEO