This persistence is even more pronounced when observing more qualified professional trajectories. When comparing workers dismissed in mass dismissal events with others with the same education, occupational history and length of employment who remained employed, it is observed that, among those with complete higher education, the relative loss of formal employment remains close to 20 percentage points in the fifth year after dismissal. In the case of workers with longer contracts, especially those with more than 15 years in the same company, this difference exceeds 25 percentage points. These patterns suggest that, once the dismissal occurs, the main difficulty may not be the lack of qualification, but the scarcity of opportunities compatible with the occupational level previously reached, a hypothesis raised from the results observed in the study.
Even among workers who manage to relocate, the losses are not restricted to access to employment. The data show that salaries on return to the formal market remain, on average, between 3% and 8% below those observed among similar workers who did not go through the shock, even five years after dismissal, depending on the profile analyzed.
Inequalities are also clearly manifested at the sociodemographic level. When compared to similar workers who did not suffer the shock, women and workers in older age groups face greater difficulties returning to formal employment. Even when they manage to relocate, these groups tend to return to the market in lower-paid occupations, increasing the risk of losing their professional position over time.
These findings reinforce a central message for the debate on social mobility. Dismissal not only interrupts the employment relationship but can redefine the point from which future mobility begins to occur. When the return to the market takes place in lower positions, the shock is no longer just temporary and compromises the ability to maintain trajectories of ascension or stability built over the years.
From the point of view of public policies, the results suggest that uniform strategies to support relocation tend to be ineffective. Professional qualification programs, labor intermediation, and hiring incentives can gain effectiveness if they consider the specific barriers faced by different worker profiles.
Understanding how different trajectories react to large-scale disengagement shocks is essential to qualify the debate on social mobility in Brazil. Layoffs not only produce immediate effects on employment, but can leave lasting marks on professional trajectories, influencing the possibilities of economic progress throughout life.
