2025 - Edition 83 | October 28

Results show that two out of three young beneficiaries in 2012 left the program over the following 12-year period and further explores the influence of family and regional conditions on the trajectories of these families

Hello Leitor,

The Bolsa Família Program has been consolidated, over more than two decades, as a milestone of Brazilian social policy. By offering minimum income security, the program contributed to reducing poverty and creating conditions for millions of families to invest in education, health and better life opportunities. Its importance goes beyond financial support: it has been fundamental to ensure dignity, protect families in times of crisis, and reduce inequalities in the country.

An essential part of this policy is the Cadastro Único for Social Programs, an instrument that identifies, monitors and allows understanding the living conditions of low-income families throughout the national territory. More than a simple administrative record, the Cadastro Único is a strategic management and knowledge tool, which reveals the social transformations underway and enables the State to better plan its actions. Leaving the registry, in this context, can represent a trajectory of ascension and improvement of living conditions, with families that gain autonomy and become less dependent on the direct protection of the State.

It was in this scenario that IMDS developed the study "Determinants of the Exit from the Cadastro Único: Longitudinal Evidence from Bolsa Família beneficiaries in 2012", within the scope of the Technical Cooperation Agreement with the Ministry of Development and Social Assistance, Family and Fight against Hunger (MDS). The full report is available on the IMDS website (here) and was also the subject of a report in Folha de S.Paulo (read here) and Agência Brasil (read here).

The study follows, between 2012 and 2024, a generation of young people who, at the beginning of the last decade, were dependent on families benefiting from Bolsa Família. Over twelve years, the results show a picture of significant advances. About two out of three young people (66.5%) left the program in this period, while 17.6% remain in the Unified Registry without the benefit and 33.5% continue to receive the Bolsa Família. These numbers reveal that a significant portion of the families monitored managed to improve their living conditions and disconnect from the country's main income transfer policy, although a relevant fraction continues to need support.

The analyses indicate that families that have left the registry tend, on average, to have better initial income and schooling conditions, in addition to being more concentrated in urban areas and in municipalities with greater economic dynamism. On the other hand, those families headed by women, located in rural areas or with less schooling are more likely to remain registered, reflecting structural inequalities that limit the advance of social mobility in some regions of the country.

Another important result shows that families with a longer stay in the Bolsa Família are more likely to continue linked to the Cadastro Único even after the end of the benefit. This finding highlights the role of the program in offering stability and income security to chronically vulnerable groups. At the same time, it reinforces the fact that the definitive overcoming of poverty requires a set of integrated policies that combine income transfer with opportunities for education, professional qualification, productive inclusion and strengthening of local economies.

TThe study also draws attention to regional and demographic differences in the dynamics of leaving the program. In medium and large municipalities, especially in areas with a greater offer of formal employment and access to public services, the trajectories of disconnection from the registry are more frequent. This pattern indicates that territorial and structural factors, such as the concentration of work and education opportunities, influence the possibilities of social mobility of families.

The results reinforce the message that Bolsa Família is an indispensable basis of Brazilian social policy, necessary to ensure dignity and reduce poverty. They also indicate that, if articulated with other policies, especially those that expand access to education and work, the program has the potential to boost concrete trajectories of social mobility and autonomy.

See you in the next "IMDS Letter"!

Paulo Tafner

CEO