| Hello, *|NOME|* Rural farmers have faced a difficult decision in the face of extreme weather events, such as prolonged droughts: to stay on their land or migrate in search of better conditions? Can the Bolsa Família Program (PBF) influence this choice? A recent study (access here) by IMDS investigated whether Bolsa Família acts as a protection network, helping families to face climatic adversities without abandoning their homes. According to the World Bank's World Development Report 2023, about 40% of the world's population lives in areas highly exposed to extreme weather phenomena, ranging from water scarcity to floods and storms. In these territories, where the economy is dependent on agriculture and livestock, the frequency of crop failures increases with climate change, limiting economic opportunities and, in many cases, compromising access to basic resources, such as drinking water. Migration is a common response to these challenges. Given this reality, the study undertaken by IMDS in partnership with researchers Vinicius Diniz Schuabb (from Bocconi University, Italy) and Valdemar Neto (from Brazil's FGV) seeks to answer how cash transfer programs affect the resilience strategies of vulnerable families in rural regions. Do conditional cash transfers, such as Bolsa Família, which are not conditional on specific weather events, help mitigate the impacts of extreme droughts? The study focused on rural families whose income comes mostly from agricultural activities. Using CadÚnico, the Single Registry of beneficiaries of social programs, the registration of family farmers in the Declaration of Aptitude (DAP) for the National Program for the Strengthening of Family Agriculture (Pronaf) and detailed rainfall data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), researchers were able to carry out an unprecedented analysis on the impact of droughts on these communities. Results reveal that short-distance migrations within the municipalities of origin are five times more prevalent than long-distance migrations between municipalities. Furthermore, it was shown that social benefits can both increase and reduce the likelihood of individual migration, depending on the level of exposure to droughts. Individuals exposed to 1% of the most severe droughts tend, on average, to use the benefits as a subsidy for migration, while those exposed to the most severe 10% of droughts use the benefits in their resilience strategies, reducing migration. These findings bring a new and relevant perspective on the role of cash transfer programs in contexts of climate vulnerability, indicating that social assistance policies play a significant role in contributing to resilience and coping decisions of rural populations in the face of the challenges imposed by the climate. The work, which was featured in a report in the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, reveals that about 5.5 million people, vulnerable agricultural producers, registered in CadÚnico and DAP/Pronaf, were affected by drought in Brazil between 2015 and 2019. Of these, 77% were beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família Program and almost 70% lived in the Northeast region of Brazil. The study also reveals that about 438 thousand people affected by extreme drought (8% of the total) decided to leave their homes and migrate to a new location. Among these individuals affected by drought who decided to migrate, 26% were from the state of Bahia, 17% from Maranhão and another 8% from Ceará.
There are relevant questions to be answered. For example, is increasing the propensity to stay in drought-prone areas always a positive effect? The data reveal that among those who migrated, more than half went to areas less subject to drought and more productive. Thus, by encouraging permanence, Bolsa Família may be acting to reduce the opportunities for greater gain of these individuals and families, in addition to reducing the country's potential for generating wealth. There are also new challenges on this agenda. It is necessary to investigate how Bolsa Família acts when extreme weather events occur in the country's urban areas. Unlike rural areas, extreme rain – and not drought – can produce destruction of homes and urban infrastructure, putting at risk the permanence of families in their homes, in addition to bringing more risk to public health. It is challenges like these that IMDS intends to face in an attempt to offer answers to society and public authorities and, thus, contribute to improving the country's public policies. Soon we will have news to present on these issues as relevant as they are interesting. And you, the reader, will be duly notified and able to access these studies on our website. See you in the next "IMDS Letter"! Paulo Tafner CEO | 
