| Hello, *|NOME|* Recently, this "IMDS Letter" dealt with the Failure Predictor for students enrolled in Junior High School (6th to 9th grade) in the public network of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. In issue 64, of February 4 [See here], we said that "the solution, based on advanced machine learning techniques, will allow the Municipal Secretariat (MSE) to direct actions to support students at higher risk of repetition from 2025 onwards". Unlike traditional approaches that rely on the analysis of scattered data, this unprecedented predictor automates the identification of students at risk of failure in an agile and accurate way. It integrates multiple sources of information – grades, attendance, school history, school profile, among others – to provide an early diagnosis, allowing the network to act well before the problem worsens. It is common sense that failure produces demotivation in the student and increases the probability of later school dropout. Each failure, in addition to the immediate negative effects on the student, can produce negative externality effects for the whole society, because, by increasing the chance of dropping out of school, it increases the risks of perpetuating poverty and involving the young student in illegal acts and social violence. It is always good to remember that avoided failure has relevant impacts on the trajectory of students during their school period, as well as on their working life, in addition to contributing decisively to their social mobility. The easy applicability of this tool in school management aimed at reducing failure has aroused the interest of some of the subnational entities with which IMDS has a Technical Cooperation Agreement (TCA). Thus, we started negotiations for the possibility of inclusion, in our TCA Work Plans, the development of Predictors for educational networks. These are the cases of the state governments of Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul, with which we started programming and developing predictors for their networks. It should be noted that, especially in the case of Mato Grosso do Sul, the State is still responsible (at least partially) for the provision of basic education in many municipalities, including the state capital, allowing this tool to be used from the first years of elementary school.
IMDS is working so that all these predictors are fully developed in the first semester of this year, so that they are applicable to students during the 2025 academic year. We know that the reasons for possible failure are many and may involve dimensions such as extreme economic and social vulnerability, broken families, very low parental education, domestic violence and others, far beyond the already known factors of discouragement and lack of commitment to the education of children and young people. It is interesting to note that the prediction model also highlights the importance of variables related to the school itself, such as teacher training, the quality of school management and the average performance of the classes. This indicates that there are causes of failure and low school performance that go beyond individual aspects of students, thus requiring broader actions. In this context, in parallel with the need for strictly school, welfare and social interventions, we understand that it is essential to act directly on the learning of students at higher risk. For this reason, together with the application, we are planning to offer a "menu" of individualized measures to be offered to each student, according to the degree of severity, a menu to be developed in partnership with the state governments. With the Predictor and mitigating actions, managers and educators will be able to act with detailed knowledge of each student, in advance, ensuring that support reaches those at risk of failure, which will allow a more efficient allocation of educational resources, enhancing the impact of programs such as school reinforcement, personalized tutoring and individualized monitoring of students and their families. This new initiative reinforces IMDS's commitment to improving the quality of education and promoting more equitable opportunities for public school students. See you in the next "IMDS Letter"! Paulo Tafner CEO | 
