| Hello, *|NOME|* The conducting of evidence-based public policies, a topic that we have already addressed in our letters, has been one of the pillars of the work of IMDS since its foundation. In this field, there is no single path to follow; We have explored this journey through a variety of routes. One of the main avenues is the production of indicators and dashboards, which allow managers and decision-makers to quickly visualize essential metrics to identify trends and areas that need attention. Another path is the formalization of Technical Cooperation Agreements (TCAs), when we have the opportunity to produce and customize a work plan that involves the improvement of program designs, structuring of theories of change, support in the construction of monitoring systems, ex-ante evaluations and feasibility analysis of impact evaluations. Following this trajectory, in 2022 IMDS signed a Technical Cooperation Agreement with the City of Rio de Janeiro, through the Department of Education. This agreement had two fundamental objectives: to develop a theory of change for "Bora Pra Escola", an active school search program (and finalist for the Public Spirit award. See here); The other goal was to create a predictor of student dropout, using data science techniques. These tools are part of the vast set of instruments that can guide public management, but they serve different purposes. The Theory of Change (ToC) is an analysis tool that can be developed for a project, program, or policy at different stages of implementation. It seeks to understand the motivations for the construction and implementation of a program, the activities and resources necessary for its occurrence, and the actors involved in achieving the effects. Therefore, it reflects the way in which the creators of a program imagined solving a specific problem. For this reason, the involvement of the teams of the Department of Education, responsible for the idealization and coordination of the program, was fundamental in this process. The result is represented by the ToC diagram, which provides a comprehensive and illustrated description, showing the sequence of occurrences with the help of connectors, which determine the relationships between one component and another and help to visualize the logical series and the dependence of one component on another. This makes ToC a powerful tool to ensure clarity in communication about the program. Another use of the Theory of Change is that it facilitates the creation of indicators and can even be a starting point for the development of a monitoring system, which will allow you to evaluate your progress and results over time. This will be one of the purposes of the ToC that we will develop regarding the Productive Inclusion Policy of São Paulo, in partnership with the state's Department of Economic Development, formalized through an ACT. Here, too, we have developed an experimental predictor of school dropout. This predictor is a mathematical model that uses machine learning algorithms to analyze data and identify students who are at risk of dropping out of school. The model provides a probability of dropping out for each student, which makes it possible to apply a preventive approach, helping to focus on specific actions to prevent school dropout. In addition, the predictor can be used to optimize resources, prioritizing efforts in areas and groups of students that most need support, thus increasing the efficiency and impact of the program's actions. In continuity with these projects, we have recently started a special study on the determinants of non-attendance, and we are going to start working on a predictive model of school failure. The importance of a failure predictor lies in its ability to provide, at the beginning of the year, information about the students most likely to fail at the end of a school year. With the early identification of students at risk, the predictor enables the network to mobilize efforts to prevent the phenomenon from occurring, such as offering more individualized care, with interventions directed to students who need it most. See you at the next “Letter from IMDS”! Paulo Tafner CEO |
