| Hello, *|NOME|* Brazil, according to IBGE projections, had last year 21.7 million young people between 15 and 21 years of age. Of these, 2.8 million did not attend school and did not complete Basic Education (PNAD Contínua, 2022). It's a worrisome number. Education is essential for the development of skills that favor insertion in the labor market and social mobility of young people. In addition, dropping out of school reflects social inequality that limits the chances of advancement of the poorest. The majority of young people who leave school (60%) belong to the poorest 40% of the population, while only 5% are among the richest 20%. The reasons for abandoning school vary according to the sex and age of young people. Among males, the main factors are the need to work and the lack of interest in studies. Among females, pregnancy is the main reason. Pregnancy especially affects the poorest women: among those who drop out, 26 percent cite pregnancy as the reason for dropping out of school. The need to perform household chores or care for people and lack of interest are, broadly speaking, other reasons that affect poor women. The differences between the main reasons for not attending school vary according to age. Among young men, lack of interest is the most frequent reason for 14-to-18-year-olds, while the need to work is the most common reason for 19-to-21-year-olds. For women, the most relevant reason varies between lack of interest and pregnancy. However, as age increases, the need to work becomes more relevant. An integrated policy to combat dropout should bring together from financial incentives to stay (an example is the "Poupança Jovem Piauí") to Active Search programs (there are several examples, among which we can highlight the one implemented by the state of Pernambuco for its focus on young people in more vulnerable territories), of a more reactive nature. However, prevention is better and cheaper than cure. The age-grade distortion is an antecedent and determining factor of school dropout. In Brazil, the abandonment rate is 17% among students with two years or more of school delay in relation to the grade, and only 2% among students with a year or less of delay, according to INEP data of 2019 organized by the Institute for Mobility and Social Development (IMDS). Therefore, high school dropout results from the school's inattention to its most vulnerable students in the early years of elementary school. A policy to combat dropout is a priority and should involve states and municipalities, since the latter are responsible for much of public elementary and junior high school education. And it should not only be the task of the departments of education, but also of the secretariats of social assistance and health, and others such as childhood and adolescent courts, in cases where infrequency in school attendance is a sign of violation of other rights of the child. Seeking to support local governments in the structuring of integrated policies to combat dropout, we have structured Technical Cooperation Agreements (TCA) with the Municipal Department of Education (MDE) of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, whose content deals with providing technical support to the design and monitoring of the "Bora pra Escola" program. We have elaborated the logical framework of the program and what is called a Theory of Change, where all the actions and responsible actors are specified and together with the design of a logical framework, link the actions with the expected results (translated in the form of input indicators, intermediate results, and final results). Also, with the MDE, we have developed a predictor of school dropout, applying machine learning tools using the administrative records of the students of that municipal network.
On another front, in a TCA with the State of Rio Grande do Sul, and more specifically, with the Office of Special Projects (OSP), we have sought to identify elements for an integrated policy to combat dropout, complementing the effort the State made during the preparation of its Multiannual Plan. As part of this effort, IMDS is benchmarking and ideating new actions that complement the "Todo Jovem na Escola" program in Rio Grande do Sul, which has been running for more than a year and has recently undergone improvements. At the analytical level, in addition to the wide range of studies, presentations and BI tools that we have developed on the topic of truancy and dropout (see, respectively, here, here and here), we are launching this week the Technical Note "Exploring the reasons for school dropout in Brazil: an analysis from the education supplement of PNADC-2022", where you will find more details and data on this problem, and whose content subsidized an article produced by IMDS researchers, published in Folha de São Paulo (see here). Concentrating efforts, integrating areas of State action, and focusing on specific actions should be a priority of government management. All this is only possible with the use of data for the purposes of planning and monitoring public action. There is no other way to do it. Happy reading and see you next "Letter from the IMDS”! Paulo Tafner CEO |
