| Hello, *|NOME|* What do youth, demographics and productivity have in common? In recent decades, Brazil has gone through one of the most radical changes ever seen in the demographic pyramid. Two facts stand out. First: in 1980, the country had 45.3 million children (people aged 14 years or less) and 7.2 million elderly (60 years or +). In 2020 - forty years later - according to IBGE projections, the number of elderly (60+) reached 29.3, while the number of children was 44.3 million. In the next decade the number of elderly will be higher than that of children. And that will happen in nine years, in 2032. By 2060, there will be 73.6 million elderly people and 28.3 million children. Second, in 2023, the number of people of active age (15-to-59-year-olds) is expected to exceed the sum of children and elderly by 61 million. This surplus, called demographic bonus, was already 63 million in 2017 and will be only 14 million in 2060. Two relevant statistics among demographers relate to the percentage of elderly people in the population. It is understood that there are up to 10% of the elderly in the total population, so the country can be considered young. On the other hand, when this percentage reaches 30% then the country can be considered elderly. Brazil will make this transition (from less than 10% to more than 30%) in less than 50 years. Among the 100 most populous countries, this one will be the 9th fastest transition. And we do this without having surpassed the stage of a middle-income country. So that the aging of the country does not become impoverishment, at least two factors are fundamental: the increase in the proportion of people working among those of working age and the increase in productivity among those who work. Currently, gender and schooling are determinant both in the occupancy rate (probability of being employed) and in productivity. 58% of young women (between 25 and 29 years of age) with complete primary or incomplete secondary education are in the workforce, compared to about 87% among young women with higher education or more. The productivity of young workers, in turn, when measured by the average wage, increases greatly with education: those who have higher education earn 89% more than those who have only completed High School. Thus, the low schooling of a substantial part of the working-age population limits Brazil from taking advantage of the demographic bonus. Young people in families whose guardians have at least higher education are much more educated than those belonging to homes where the guardian has at most incomplete Elementary School education. In the first group, most have completed higher education; in the second, completed High School (which is an evolution compared to twenty years ago, but insufficient for the necessary qualification in an economy whose technological matrix evolves rapidly and excludes people and countries that do not follow the pace of the technological frontier). And what training is basic Brazilian education giving to its young people? In the PISA mathematics test (International Student Assessment Program, applied to 15-year-olds), only 4% of Brazilian adolescents from families of low socioeconomic status scored above the appropriate for that age, compared to 44% of those from more privileged backgrounds. While the poorest citizens receive an education similar to that received by the poorest Indonesians and Moroccans, the more well-to-do have a level of mathematical knowledge close to their Chilean peers. As if that were not enough, the pace of improvement in the qualification of the Brazilian workforce is not compatible with the use of the demographic window that is presented. In 10 years, between 2009 and 2018, Brazil's grades in the Pisa mathematics exam were stagnant. During this period, public spending on basic education increased considerably. The demographic bonus will pass. The country that once was "of the future" will be old and poor in a short time. And with low social mobility. Avoiding this destiny necessarily involves the productive inclusion of the children of the poorest, which will only be possible with a radical transformation both in the way in which knowledge is transmitted in public schools and in social policies that complement the role of the school. Such a strategy will require an unprecedented improvement in the efficiency of the public machine. While there is still time... "Main challenges for youth in Brazil", a new study by IMDS, presents the association between social mobility, training workforce, productivity and demographics from the perspective of the challenges facing youth. The presentation also shows that mitigating the perverse effects of demographic reversal in the country depends on the timely overcoming of bottlenecks that prevent social mobility and greater productive inclusion of youth. See you in the next IMDS Letter! Paulo Tafner CEO | 
