2026 - Edition 106 | September 22

New IMDS panel brings together 228 indicators and allows monitoring results and trajectories of the 27 Units of the Federation

Hello reader,

The 2026 elections once again bring into discussion the main economic and social challenges faced by Brazilian states. Security, education, poverty, the labor market, health, and conditions for economic growth are among the topics that should occupy the public debate and the agenda of governments that will assume or renew their mandates as of 2027.

To contribute to this discussion with objective information, IMDS launches the IMDS Elections 2026: State Overview , a panel that brings together 228 indicators on the 27 Units of the Federation, organized into 12 themes: business environment; social assistance; economic activity; income distribution and poverty; education; fiscal situation; housing; environment; labor market; social mobility, health; security.

This is not the first IMDS initiative aimed at qualifying the electoral debate based on data. In 2022, the Institute launched an edition of IMDS Elections dedicated to Brazilian states, bringing together indicators on different dimensions of economic and social development. Two years later, in the 2024 municipal elections, the initiative was expanded with a panel of municipal indicators. In this new edition, IMDS resumes its look at the Units of the Federation, updates and expands the set of available information, and incorporates a systematic reading of state trajectories over time.

More than presenting the most recent data available, the tool seeks to answer three important questions to understand the situation of each state: "what is its current result?", "what trajectory has it taken?" and "with which other states does it make sense to compare it?".

This combination is important because current position and trajectory do not always tell the same story. One state may present a relatively favorable result today but be losing position or registering deterioration over time. Another may still be in an unfavorable situation, but present consistent progress. Looking only at the last available number can, therefore, hide a relevant part of the diagnosis.

Public security indicators help to show these differences. In Amapá, the homicide rate went from 32.8 per 100 thousand inhabitants in 2006 to 57.3 in 2023. In Bahia, it increased from 23.7 to 43.9 in the same period. São Paulo followed a different trajectory: the rate fell from 20.4 to 6.4 homicides per 100 thousand inhabitants, reaching the lowest level among Brazilian states in 2023.

In education, we find very different trajectories. In Ceará, the percentage of students in the 2nd grade of Elementary School with an adequate level of proficiency in reading changed from 44.9% in 2021 to 72.1% in 2023. In Alagoas, in the same interval, the indicator changed from 30% to 30.7%.

The differences also appear in the labor market. Among young people aged 18 to 24 who neither work nor study, Santa Catarina recorded a reduction from 17.5% in 2012 to 13.5% in 2025. In Alagoas, on the other hand, the proportion went from 27% to 38.2%. In health, between 2020 and 2025, the rate of tuberculosis cases increased from 79.3 to 99.3 per 100 thousand inhabitants in Rio de Janeiro and from 53.8 to 69.8 in Rio Grande do Sul.

The panel also highlights regional inequalities that persist in the country. The highest percentages of people living below the extreme poverty line are concentrated in the states of the North and Northeast regions, while states in the South and Midwest present relatively more favorable results. A similar pattern appears in indicators of informality among young people.

But the combined reading of the data also shows that the regional division is far from explaining the entire performance of the states. No Unit of the Federation systematically presents the best results in all the dimensions analyzed. This reinforces the importance of avoiding diagnoses based on a single indicator or on isolated comparisons.

This is one of the reasons why the panel does not propose a single ranking of the states. For each indicator, the UFs are organized according to their results, allowing the identification of groups with similar situations and monitoring their trajectories over time. The intention is to provide context for the comparison, and not to summarize complex realities in a single classification.

In an election year, this type of information gains special relevance. Historical series make it possible to distinguish recent problems from those that have persisted for years, to identify changes in trajectory, and to assess whether a given situation is particular to a state or shared by other Units of the Federation. The panel thus offers a common reference for citizens, researchers, public managers, and candidates interested in better understanding state challenges.

By making this information available in a public and organized way, IMDS seeks to contribute to a more informed and evidence-based electoral debate. Knowing the starting point and trajectory of the states is an important step to discuss which problems should occupy the agenda in the coming years.

Get to know the IMDS Elections 2026: State Overview and explore the indicators of the 27 Units of the Federation.

See you in the next "Letter from IMDS"!

Paulo Tafner
CEO